The devastating wildfires that swept through Los Angeles County earlier this year may have led to hundreds more deaths than officially reported, according to new research published Wednesday, August 6, 2025 in The Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).
While official reports confirmed at least 30 direct fatalities from the Palisades and Eaton fires, researchers now estimate that an additional 410 excess deaths may be linked to the wildfires between January 5 and February 1, 2025, bringing the total potential wildfire-related death toll to 440.
“These additional deaths likely reflect a combination of factors, including increased exposure to poor air quality and health care delays and interruptions,” the study noted.
Andrew Stokes, an associate professor at Boston University and one of the study’s lead authors, said personal experience drove his involvement. “Having had many family and friends who were directly affected made me feel compelled to look into this further, using my expertise as a demographer and a person who studies mortality statistics,” he told CNN.
To determine the wildfire’s broader impact, the researchers analyzed weekly death records in Los Angeles County for the study period, comparing them with historical data from similar months in pre-pandemic years (excluding 2020–2023). They found that 6,371 deaths occurred, compared to an expected 5,931, indicating that nearly 7% of the deaths were above normal and potentially attributable to the wildfires.
The study included both direct and indirect wildfire-related fatalities, such as deaths from exacerbated heart and lung conditions, mental health crises, and disruptions to healthcare access during the emergency.
Stokes, who previously studied excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, said he was “really surprised and alarmed” by the findings. “The magnitude of the underreporting in the official data is just very severe,” he added.
Experts say the study underscores the importance of accounting for the broader health impacts of climate-related disasters. “These medium- and long-term effects … could manifest over time as people develop wildfire-related diseases,” Stokes said, noting that the current figure likely represents a lower bound.
The authors emphasized that more research is needed to assess the lasting health consequences of wildfire exposure and to improve emergency response and public health interventions in future disasters.
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